AI recap for Saturday, 7 November 2026: 15 of 15 most likely matches happened
The AI had a clean Saturday: all 15 of its most likely outcomes at 65 % or more happened, from Paris SG edging Troyes 1-0 to Rosenborg beating Start 4-1. We analysed 89 matches across competitions including the Bundesliga, Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A and the FA Cup.
The day's most likely matches
A match is highlighted when a team has at least a 65% chance to win. These are probabilities, not certainties: at 70%, it fails 3 times out of 10.
Bundesliga · 1-2Bayern Munich win ✓ HAPPENED72 % · exp. goals 1.24-3
Bundesliga · 5-2RB Leipzig win ✓ HAPPENED65 % · exp. goals 2.4-1.12
Bundesliga · 2-1Dortmund win ✓ HAPPENED71 % · exp. goals 2.33-0.89
Premier League · 1-0Arsenal win ✓ HAPPENED72 % · exp. goals 1.59-0.54
FA Cup · 3-0Barnet win ✓ HAPPENED66 % · exp. goals 2.26-0.94
FA Cup · 7-2Barnsley win ✓ HAPPENED66 % · exp. goals 2.36-1.05
FA Cup · 2-0Luton win ✓ HAPPENED65 % · exp. goals 2.26-1
Süper Lig · 4-3Galatasaray win ✓ HAPPENED66 % · exp. goals 2.29-1.53
Eliteserien · 4-1Rosenborg win ✓ HAPPENED79 % · exp. goals 2.91-0.74
Greek Super League · 3-0Aris win ✓ HAPPENED67 % · exp. goals 1.56-0.69
Serie A · 3-0Roma win ✓ HAPPENED73 % · exp. goals 2.61-0.92
LaLiga · 0-3Real Madrid win ✓ HAPPENED67 % · exp. goals 0.84-1.79
Ligue 1 · 1-0Paris SG win ✓ HAPPENED87 % · exp. goals 3.06-0.48
Liga Portugal · 1-0Sp Lisbon win ✓ HAPPENED80 % · exp. goals 2.93-0.75
Liga Profesional · 2-0Rosario Central win ✓ HAPPENED77 % · exp. goals 2.01-0.4
The AI saw Bayern Munich winning at Mainz (72 %), and it ended 1-2. It also saw Real Madrid at Valencia (67 %), a 0-3 result, and Arsenal against Hull (72 %), a 1-0. Some were tighter than the numbers suggested, like Galatasaray's 4-3 against Amedspor and Dortmund's 2-1 against Elversberg. The average probability announced was 72 %, so a 15/15 run is a good day, not a guarantee for the next one.
Top leagues in probabilities
Chance of a home win (1), a draw (X) and an away win (2), and chance of more than 2.5 goals.
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds - Tottenham Premier League · 13:30 · 1-0 | 35 % | 28 % | 37 % | 43 % |
| Malaga - Santander LaLiga · 14:00 · 1-2 | 39 % | 27 % | 34 % | 63 % |
| Torino - Lecce Serie A · 15:00 · 1-1 | 52 % | 26 % | 22 % | 43 % |
| Cagliari - Frosinone Serie A · 15:00 · 1-0 | 35 % | 26 % | 39 % | 69 % |
| Mainz - Bayern Munich Bundesliga · 15:30 · 1-2 | 12 % | 15 % | 72 % | 80 % |
| RB Leipzig - Augsburg Bundesliga · 15:30 · 5-2 | 65 % | 19 % | 15 % | 68 % |
| Dortmund - Elversberg Bundesliga · 15:30 · 2-1 | 71 % | 18 % | 12 % | 62 % |
| Paderborn - Ein Frankfurt Bundesliga · 15:30 · 2-2 | 31 % | 25 % | 44 % | 61 % |
| Fulham - Newcastle Premier League · 16:00 · 1-1 | 46 % | 26 % | 28 % | 49 % |
| Arsenal - Hull Premier League · 16:00 · 1-0 | 72 % | 19 % | 9 % | 36 % |
| Espanol - La Coruna LaLiga · 16:15 · 0-0 | 41 % | 29 % | 30 % | 40 % |
| Parma - Bologna Serie A · 18:00 · 1-2 | 22 % | 27 % | 51 % | 34 % |
| Nott'm Forest - Man City Premier League · 18:30 · 3-1 | 21 % | 24 % | 56 % | 48 % |
| Stuttgart - Werder Bremen Bundesliga · 18:30 · 1-0 | 57 % | 21 % | 22 % | 69 % |
| Osasuna - Ath Bilbao LaLiga · 18:30 · 1-1 | 26 % | 28 % | 46 % | 44 % |
| Auxerre - Paris FC Ligue 1 · 19:00 · 0-1 | 22 % | 24 % | 54 % | 52 % |
Competitions analysed
Method: probabilities follow the market when it exists, and our model (attack, defence, recent matches, expected goals) otherwise. Every probability is locked 3 hours before kick-off, then checked against the real result. Method in detail · Free widget for your site
The probability of every match, free
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