Method and reliability

How we compute

For each match we mix two opinions, half and half:

• Our own calculation: each team gets an attack and defence rating from its recent matches (the latest count more). From that we work out how many goals each side should score, then its chances to win, draw or lose.
• The bookmakers' view: their odds with the margin removed. They already account for injuries and line-ups.

When there are no odds, only our calculation counts.

Our calculation also gives the expected number of goals, the most likely score, the chance of more than 2.5 goals and recent form.

The most likely matches

A match is highlighted when a team has at least a 65% chance to win. Every probability is locked 3 hours before kick-off, then checked against the real result. Nothing is deleted.

Are our numbers right?

The test is simple: when we say 70%, it should happen about 7 times out of 10. The table groups every case where we gave roughly the same chance and shows how often it really happened.

Chance given	Really happened	Number of cases
7 %	0 %	7
16 %	13 %	47
25 %	24 %	154
34 %	32 %	66
44 %	45 %	44
53 %	53 %	36
65 %	83 %	18
74 %	100 %	6

The match-by-match detail is in the Reliability tab. See the reliability

Why trust us?

We do not claim to beat the bookmakers: they are companies with huge resources. What we guarantee is that every number is published before the match and never changed afterwards. Anyone can check, and the results stay up even when they are bad.

What we do not promise

• A probability is not a certainty: even at 80%, one outcome in five does not happen.
• This is not betting advice.
• The figures on this page are published as they are, even when they are bad.