The football probabilities blog
Every day the probability of every football match with checked results, plus guides to understand expected goals and probabilities.
Football probabilities for Sunday, 8 November 2026: the most likely matches
75 matches analysed on Sunday, 8 November 2026: win, draw and loss probabilities, 11 match(es) at 65%+, expected goals and checked results.
The big matches seen by the model
AI slightly favors Utrecht over Nijmegen
The model gives Utrecht a narrow edge over Nijmegen in this Eredivisie match on 8 November at 20:00 (Paris time). Its most likely outcome is an Utrecht win, t
ReadPREVIEWAI sees Sp Braga beating Rio Ave 0-2
The model backs Sp Braga to win at Rio Ave in Liga Portugal on 8 November, with a 62% probability. Its most likely score is 0-2.
ReadPREVIEWAI backs Lens to get past Marseille at Bollaert
Lens host Marseille at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis on 8 November at 20:45 (Paris time) in round 10 of Ligue 1. The model's most likely outcome is a Lens win, a
ReadPREVIEWAI sees Freiburg beating Union Berlin 2-0
Freiburg host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on 8 November 2026 at 17:30 (Paris time), and the model makes the home side clear favourites. Its most likely out
ReadPREVIEWAI sees Hoffenheim beating Schalke 04
The model's most likely outcome for Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga is a Hoffenheim win, with a 57% probability. Its most likely single score is 1-
ReadPREVIEWAI sees Leverkusen beating Köln in the Bundesliga
The model gives Leverkusen a 51% chance of winning at Köln on Sunday 8 November (15:30 Paris time) at the RheinEnergieStadion, in round 9 of the Bundesliga. I
ReadPREVIEWAI sees Juventus beating Fiorentina in Serie A
The model makes Juventus the most likely winner of Fiorentina vs Juventus, with a 47% chance of an away win. The Serie A match kicks off on 8 November 2026 at
ReadPREVIEWAI backs Inter to beat Como in Serie A
The model gives Inter the edge against Como in Serie A on 8 November (18:00 Paris time), with an Inter win as the most likely outcome. The most likely single
ReadPREVIEWAI sees Villarreal edging Getafe 1-0
Villarreal host Getafe at the Estadio de la Cerámica on 8 November (18:30 Paris time) in round 12 of LaLiga. The model's most likely outcome is a Villarreal w
ReadPREVIEWAI backs Sociedad to beat Vallecano in LaLiga
The model gives Sociedad a 53% chance of beating Vallecano in LaLiga on 8 November, with kickoff at 16:15 Paris time. Its most likely outcome is a Sociedad wi
ReadPREVIEWAI sees Celta beating Levante in LaLiga
Our model gives Celta a 51% chance of beating Levante in LaLiga on 8 November at 18:30 (Paris time). A Celta win is the most likely outcome, although the sing
ReadPREVIEWAI sees Barcelona edging Atletico Madrid
The model's most likely outcome for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona in LaLiga is a Barcelona win, with a 48% probability. The match is played at the Riyadh Air M
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