Football probabilities for Sunday, 8 November 2026: the most likely matches
Sunday 8 November brings 75 matches across 12 competitions, and the strongest probabilities are already being tested. Of the four most likely outcomes at 65% or more that have finished, three happened, with an average probability of 68%.
The day's most likely matches
A match is highlighted when a team has at least a 65% chance to win. These are probabilities, not certainties: at 70%, it fails 3 times out of 10.
Belgian Pro League · 1-1Club Brugge win ✗ DID NOT HAPPEN67 % · exp. goals 2.55-0.94
Cypriot First Division · 0-2Omonia Nicosia win ✓ HAPPENED68 % · exp. goals 0.69-2.04
Greek Super LeagueAEK win 78 % · exp. goals 2.49-0.59
Belgian Pro League · 1-0Gent win ✓ HAPPENED70 % · exp. goals 2.17-0.54
Eredivisie · 2-5PSV Eindhoven win ✓ HAPPENED67 % · exp. goals 1.75-3.2
Serbian SuperLigaFK Partizan win 74 % · exp. goals 2.46-0.77
Scottish PremiershipCeltic win 83 % · exp. goals 3.4-0.8
EliteserienViking win 77 % · exp. goals 2.7-0.79
Cypriot First DivisionPafos win 79 % · exp. goals 2.55-0.61
Süper LigBesiktas win 71 % · exp. goals 2.08-0.81
Liga PortugalBenfica win 76 % · exp. goals 0.8-2.78
Omonia Nicosia at Anorthosis (0-2), Gent against Kortrijk (1-0) and PSV Eindhoven at Cambuur (2-5) went the way the numbers suggested. Club Brugge vs Anderlecht, with a Club Brugge win rated at 67%, did not happen: it ended 1-1. Still to come, Celtic vs Kilmarnock carries the highest probability of the day at 83% for a Celtic win, ahead of Pafos (79%), AEK (78%) and Viking (77%).
Top leagues in probabilities
Chance of a home win (1), a draw (X) and an away win (2), and chance of more than 2.5 goals.
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli - Lazio Serie A · 12:30 · 1-1 | 42 % | 28 % | 30 % | 44 % |
| Elche - Betis LaLiga · 14:00 · 0-2 | 33 % | 26 % | 41 % | 55 % |
| Rennes - Lille Ligue 1 · 15:00 · 1-2 | 40 % | 27 % | 34 % | 52 % |
| Sunderland - Chelsea Premier League · 15:00 · 1-0 | 27 % | 26 % | 47 % | 52 % |
| Genoa - Milan Serie A · 15:00 · 1-2 | 22 % | 28 % | 51 % | 43 % |
| Crystal Palace - Liverpool Premier League · 15:00 · 1-3 | 21 % | 24 % | 56 % | 54 % |
| Ipswich - Bournemouth Premier League · 15:00 · 1-2 | 26 % | 24 % | 50 % | 67 % |
| Monza - Atalanta Serie A · 15:00 · 0-1 | 25 % | 23 % | 53 % | 71 % |
| Brighton - Brentford Premier League · 15:00 · 2-0 | 51 % | 25 % | 25 % | 58 % |
| FC Koln - Leverkusen Bundesliga · 15:30 · 1-2 | 25 % | 23 % | 51 % | 64 % |
| Sociedad - Vallecano LaLiga · 16:15 · 1-0 | 53 % | 24 % | 23 % | 59 % |
| Angers - Nice Ligue 1 · 17:15 | 28 % | 28 % | 44 % | 42 % |
| Brest - Lyon Ligue 1 · 17:15 | 32 % | 27 % | 41 % | 54 % |
| Le Havre - Lorient Ligue 1 · 17:15 | 32 % | 30 % | 38 % | 39 % |
| Le Mans - Monaco Ligue 1 · 17:15 | 24 % | 25 % | 52 % | 55 % |
| Man United - Aston Villa Premier League · 17:30 | 44 % | 26 % | 31 % | 57 % |
Competitions analysed
Method: probabilities follow the market when it exists, and our model (attack, defence, recent matches, expected goals) otherwise. Every probability is locked 3 hours before kick-off, then checked against the real result. Method in detail · Free widget for your site
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