Football probabilities for Thursday, 12 November 2026: the most likely matches
Ten matches, four clear leanings: November 12 brings International friendlies, UEFA Nations League and Women's Champions League games, and our numbers point strongly in a handful of them.
The day's most likely matches
A match is highlighted when a team has at least a 65% chance to win. These are probabilities, not certainties: at 70%, it fails 3 times out of 10.
Women's Champions LeagueBarcelona W win 70 % · exp. goals 2.49-0.69
UEFA Nations LeagueSpain win 70 % · exp. goals 0.57-2.35
UEFA Nations LeagueEngland win 74 % · exp. goals 3.15-0.91
UEFA Nations LeagueBelarus win 78 % · exp. goals 0.5-2.92
The most likely results at 65 % or more: San Marino vs Belarus leans to a Belarus win at 78 %, England vs Croatia to an England win at 74 %, while Barcelona W vs Arsenal W and Czechia vs Spain both show a home win and a Spain win at 70 %. None of these matches has been played yet, so nothing has happened so far.
Competitions analysed
Method: probabilities follow the market when it exists, and our model (attack, defence, recent matches, expected goals) otherwise. Every probability is locked 3 hours before kick-off, then checked against the real result. Method in detail · Free widget for your site
Bookmaker Margin Explained with Examples
What is the bookmaker margin? Learn how to calculate it from football odds, with a worked 1X2 example showing why implied probabilities exceed 100%.
ReadDAILYAI recap for Wednesday, 11 November 2026: 1 of 1 most likely matches happened
The AI's recap for Wednesday, 11 November 2026: 1 of the 1 most likely matches happened. Results, scores and the probabilities announced before kickoff.
ReadGUIDEWhat Is Value in Football Predictions? A Clear Beginner's Guide
Value in football predictions means a probability higher than the odds imply. Learn how it works, with a worked example, and why it is no guarantee.
ReadDAILYFootball probabilities for Tuesday, 10 November 2026: the most likely matches
3 matches analysed on Tuesday, 10 November 2026: win, draw and loss probabilities, 0 match(es) at 65%+, expected goals and checked results.
ReadThe probability of every match, free
Today's most likely matches, live, team sheets and proof of reliability, free on the site.