Match preview · UEFA Nations League

AI sees France beating Italy 2-1 in Milan

Our AI makes France the most likely winner of Thursday's Nations League clash at San Siro, with a 42% chance of victory. The most likely score is 1-2 in favour of the visitors.

📅 Thursday, 12 November 2026⏱ 20:45 (Paris time)🏟 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Italy - France
Italy
vs
France
MOST LIKELYUEFA Nations League · Thursday, 12 November 2026 · 20:45
#AIFP-5630
1N2Most likely resultFrance win42%
SCOREMost likely score1-29%
xGExpected goals1.3 - 1.6
+2.5Over 2.5 goals55%
Probabilities locked before kickoff, then checkedMatch sheet
1 · 31%X · 27%2 · 42%

Our AI gives France a 42% chance of winning this League A matchday 5 game, against 31% for Italy and 27% for a draw. Kickoff is at 20:45 in Paris time at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.

On goals, the AI expects 1.31 for Italy and 1.59 for France. The most likely exact score is 1-2, with a probability of 9%, and the chance of more than 2.5 goals is put at 55%. France's away record this season is two wins from two, with two clean sheets, one goal scored per game and none conceded. Italy at home have one win and one defeat, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 per game.

Both sides arrive in the same form, with three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five, and each won its latest match. France lead the standings with 10 points and a goal difference of +5, while Italy are second with 7 points and +3. Their last five meetings are evenly split: two wins for France, two for Italy and one draw, the most recent being a 1-1 in France on 2 October 2026.

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