AI backs Lens to get past Marseille at Bollaert

The model gives Lens a 46% chance of winning, against 24% for a draw and 30% for a Marseille win. That makes the home side the clear favourite, although Marseille keep a sizeable chance of leaving with something.

The model expects 1.98 goals from Lens and 1.45 from Marseille. The most likely single score is 1-1, at 10%, even though a Lens win is the most likely outcome overall. An over 2.5 goals match is rated at 67%. This season Lens average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Marseille average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded away.

Lens have won three and lost two of their last five matches, with a defeat last time out. Marseille have won four and lost one of their last five, and won their most recent game. In the table Marseille are sixth with 15 points and a goal difference of +7, while Lens are ninth with 13 points and +3. Marseille won three of the last five meetings and Lens won two, including a 2-1 home win in October 2025. Marseille won the most recent one 3-1 in January 2026.