AI sees Man United edging Aston Villa at Old Trafford

The model gives Man United a 44% chance of winning, against 26% for a draw and 31% for an Aston Villa victory. That makes the hosts the favourites, though Villa's chance is far from small.

The model expects 1.62 goals from Man United and 1.33 from Aston Villa. The most likely single score is 1-1, at 12%, even though a home win is the most likely outcome overall. The chance of more than 2.5 goals is 56%. At home, United average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded and have no clean sheets. Villa away average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded, with two clean sheets.

United come in without a win in their last five, with three draws and two defeats, the latest a loss. They sit 18th with 7 points and a goal difference of -5. Villa are unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws, the latest a draw. They are 12th with 12 points and a goal difference of -3. In the last five meetings, United won three, Villa won one and one ended 0-0. United took the most recent one 3-1 in March 2026.