Football probabilities for Friday, 6 November 2026: the most likely matches
Twenty matches across twelve competitions, from the Romanian Liga 1 to the FA Cup, are on the probability board for 6 November 2026. Only one of them reaches the 65 % mark, so the day is wide open.
The day's most likely matches
A match is highlighted when a team has at least a 65% chance to win. These are probabilities, not certainties: at 70%, it fails 3 times out of 10.
Cypriot First Division · 4-1AEK Larnaca win ✓ HAPPENED84 % · exp. goals 2.62-0.41
That match was AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa in the Cypriot First Division, where an AEK Larnaca win was rated most likely at 84 %. It happened, with a 4-1 score, so the 1 finished match above the threshold went the way the numbers said. One result is a small sample, and the probabilities below are there to be read match by match.
Top leagues in probabilities
Chance of a home win (1), a draw (X) and an away win (2), and chance of more than 2.5 goals.
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg - M'gladbach Bundesliga · 20:30 · 3-1 | 40 % | 26 % | 33 % | 51 % |
| Venezia - Udinese Serie A · 20:45 · 2-1 | 41 % | 28 % | 31 % | 38 % |
| Toulouse - Strasbourg Ligue 1 · 20:45 · 3-1 | 43 % | 26 % | 31 % | 60 % |
| Everton - Coventry Premier League · 21:00 · 3-1 | 56 % | 24 % | 20 % | 45 % |
| Sevilla - Alaves LaLiga · 21:00 · 0-0 | 51 % | 28 % | 22 % | 53 % |
Competitions analysed
Method: probabilities follow the market when it exists, and our model (attack, defence, recent matches, expected goals) otherwise. Every probability is locked 3 hours before kick-off, then checked against the real result. Method in detail · Free widget for your site
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