AI sees Kazakhstan edging Moldova 2-1 in Nations League

The probabilities are tight. Our AI gives Kazakhstan a 38% chance of winning, Moldova 34% and a draw 28%. The Kazakhstan win is the most likely outcome, but the gap to the hosts is only four points.

On goals, our AI expects 1.34 for Moldova and 1.45 for Kazakhstan. The most likely score is 1-2, with a probability of 9%. The chance of more than 2.5 goals in the match is 53%, so a slightly open game is the more likely scenario.

Neither side arrives in great form. Moldova have one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five matches, and they lost their most recent game. Kazakhstan have no wins, two draws and three defeats in their last five, though they drew last time out. No standings or head-to-head data were provided for this fixture.