Weekly recap (6 November to 8 November 2026): 53 % of the most likely outcomes happened
In this first week since the launch on 6 November, the most likely outcome happened in 88 of 165 matches (53 %), while our AI announced 52 % on average. Announced and happened are almost identical, which is what matters for probabilities.
The clearest signal comes from the strong favourites. When our AI gave 65 % or more, it happened in 25 of 27 matches, against 73 % announced. In the 60-70 % band it happened 86 % of the time (22 matches) and from 70 % up it was 94 % (16 matches), so the AI was a bit cautious there, though these samples are small. In the 40-50 % and 50-60 % bands, the gaps were only 1 and 3 points. Süper Lig went 7/7, Bundesliga 8/9.
The AI was also wrong, and plainly so. FK Partizan vs Macva was given 74 % for a Partizan win and ended 1-2, while Club Brugge vs Anderlecht (67 % for Brugge) finished 1-1. The Bulgarian First League went 0/6 and Liga Profesional 2/6. In our game, the best of 4 players scored 2/5 against 3/5 for the AI.
Announced vs happened
A probability is right when it comes true in the same proportion: of the outcomes announced around 70%, about 7 in 10 should happen. One week is still a small sample.
| Announced probability | Matches | Announced | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 - 50 % | 57 | 45 % | 44 % |
| 50 - 60 % | 45 | 54 % | 51 % |
| 60 - 70 % | 22 | 65 % | 86 % |
| 70 - 100 % | 16 | 77 % | 94 % |
The surest calls and the biggest misses
Ligue 1 · 1-0Paris SG win ✓ HAPPENED87 %
Cypriot First Division · 4-1AEK Larnaca win ✓ HAPPENED84 %
Scottish Premiership · 1-0Celtic win ✓ HAPPENED83 %
Liga Portugal · 1-0Sp Lisbon win ✓ HAPPENED80 %
Serbian SuperLiga · 1-2FK Partizan win ✗ DID NOT HAPPEN74 %
Belgian Pro League · 1-1Club Brugge win ✗ DID NOT HAPPEN67 %
Romanian Liga 1 · 0-0U. Cluj win ✗ DID NOT HAPPEN60 %
Romanian Liga 1 · 0-1FCSB win ✗ DID NOT HAPPEN60 %
Premier League · 1-0Leeds win ✓ HAPPENED46 %
Scottish Premiership · 0-4Hibernian win ✓ HAPPENED37 %
Ligue 1 · 1-2Lille win ✓ HAPPENED37 %
Where the AI was most accurate
| Competition | Most likely outcome happened |
|---|---|
| Süper Lig | 7/7 · 100 % |
| Bundesliga | 8/9 · 89 % |
| Cypriot First Division | 6/7 · 86 % |
| Serbian SuperLiga | 5/7 · 71 % |
| Eliteserien | 4/6 · 67 % |
| Belgian Pro League | 4/7 · 57 % |
| Greek Super League | 4/7 · 57 % |
| Ligue 1 | 5/9 · 56 % |
| Liga Portugal | 5/9 · 56 % |
| Serie A | 5/10 · 50 % |
| Premier League | 5/10 · 50 % |
| LaLiga | 5/10 · 50 % |
| FA Cup | 12/26 · 46 % |
| Eredivisie | 4/9 · 44 % |
| Liga Profesional | 2/6 · 33 % |
| Bulgarian First League | 0/6 · 0 % |
Beat the model: the players' week
4 players this week. The best scored 2/5, the model 3/5. Nobody beat the model. The leaderboard resets every Monday.
Method: every probability is locked before kickoff, then checked against the real result, misses included. Published probabilities follow the market when it exists; "our model alone" is the calculation without the market. Method in detail · All results
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