Marseille: win probabilities, predicted finish and next matches (Ligue 1 2026/27)
Marseille are 6th in the Ligue 1 with 15 points from 9 matches (5 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, 20 goals scored, 13 conceded). Based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season, the club would finish on 55 points: a 1% chance of the title, 40% of a top 4 finish and practically no relegation risk.
| Season | Pos | Pts | End | Title | Top 4 | Releg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 2026/27 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 1% | 40% | <1% |
Marseille next matches: our probabilities
| Date | Match | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 8 Nov, 20:45 | at Lens | 30% | 24% | 46% |
Probabilities computed from the season's goals and expected goals (xG), updated every day. These are probabilities, not certainties. Updated 08/11/2026.
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