Ligue 1 2026/27 predicted table: title and relegation chances

#	Team	Pts	End	Title	Top 4	Releg.
1	Paris Saint Germain	23	75	92%	99%	-
2	Lens	13	58	2%	55%	<1%
3	Lyon	17	57	2%	50%	-
4	Lille	18	57	1%	47%	-
5	Paris FC	20	56	1%	44%	<1%
6	Marseille	15	55	1%	40%	<1%
7	Monaco	15	54	1%	28%	<1%
8	Rennes	16	52	<1%	19%	<1%
9	Toulouse	13	48	<1%	6%	<1%
10	Stade Brestois 29	12	47	<1%	6%	1%
11	Strasbourg	10	45	<1%	3%	1%
12	Lorient	12	43	-	1%	2%
13	Nice	14	41	-	1%	4%
14	Le Mans	7	34	-	<1%	27%
15	Estac Troyes	8	34	-	<1%	27%
16	Auxerre	10	33	-	<1%	34%
17	Angers	8	31	-	<1%	48%
18	Le Havre	2	30	-	-	55%

End = expected points at the end of the season. Percentages = share of the 20,000 simulated seasons where it happens. Updated 08/11/2026.

Next Ligue 1 matches: probabilities

1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win. Probabilities, not certainties.

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FAQ

Who will win the Ligue 1?

Based on our 20,000 simulations, Paris Saint Germain are favourites with a 92% chance of the title. It is not a certainty: it is the share of simulated seasons where it happens.

How is this predicted table computed?

We estimate each team's attacking and defensive strength from the season's goals and expected goals (xG), then play the 222 remaining matches 20,000 times. Updated every night.