Liga Portugal 2026/27 predicted table: title and relegation chances
According to 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season by AI Football Predictor, FC Porto have a 71% chance of winning the Liga Portugal (84 expected points). The clubs most at risk of relegation are Rio Ave (54%), Casa Pia (45%). 213 matches are left to play.
| # | Team | Pts | End | Title | Top 4 | Releg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 84 | 71% | 99% | - |
| 2 |  Benfica | 25 | 78 | 25% | 99% | - |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 24 | 71 | 3% | 99% | - |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 21 | 55 | - | 26% | <1% |
| 5 |  Academico Viseu | 20 | 55 | <1% | 30% | - |
| 6 |  SC Braga | 14 | 54 | - | 22% | - |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 15 | 52 | <1% | 15% | <1% |
| 8 |  Arouca | 20 | 49 | - | 6% | <1% |
| 9 |  Famalicao | 13 | 44 | - | 1% | <1% |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 14 | 41 | - | <1% | 1% |
| 11 |  Alverca | 12 | 40 | - | <1% | 2% |
| 12 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 40 | - | <1% | 2% |
| 13 |  Estrela | 10 | 36 | - | <1% | 8% |
| 14 |  Maritimo | 8 | 33 | - | <1% | 18% |
| 15 |  Nacional | 7 | 31 | - | <1% | 29% |
| 16 |  Estoril | 2 | 29 | - | - | 42% |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 29 | - | - | 45% |
| 18 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 28 | - | - | 54% |
End = expected points at the end of the season. Percentages = share of the 20,000 simulated seasons where it happens. Updated 08/11/2026.
Next Liga Portugal matches: probabilities
| Date | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 8 Nov, 18:00 | Guimaraes - Porto | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| Sun 8 Nov, 20:30 | Rio Ave - Sp Braga | 16% | 22% | 62% |
| Sun 8 Nov, 20:30 | Estrela - Benfica | 9% | 15% | 76% |
1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win. Probabilities, not certainties.
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FAQ
Who will win the Liga Portugal?
Based on our 20,000 simulations, FC Porto are favourites with a 71% chance of the title. It is not a certainty: it is the share of simulated seasons where it happens.
How is this predicted table computed?
We estimate each team's attacking and defensive strength from the season's goals and expected goals (xG), then play the 213 remaining matches 20,000 times. Updated every night.
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