Premier League 2026/27 predicted table: title and relegation chances

#	Team	Pts	End	Title	Top 4	Releg.
1	Arsenal	27	85	86%	99%	-
2	Manchester City	21	72	7%	91%	-
3	Brighton	19	71	6%	89%	-
4	Liverpool	15	61	<1%	37%	<1%
5	Chelsea	16	59	<1%	29%	<1%
6	Bournemouth	12	56	<1%	16%	1%
7	Brentford	14	56	<1%	14%	1%
8	Everton	16	53	<1%	7%	2%
9	Aston Villa	12	52	<1%	6%	3%
10	Leeds	14	51	-	4%	3%
11	Manchester United	7	49	<1%	3%	6%
12	Nottingham Forest	9	46	-	1%	13%
13	Tottenham	12	45	-	<1%	16%
14	Newcastle	12	45	-	<1%	19%
15	Hull City	11	44	-	<1%	18%
16	Ipswich	11	44	-	<1%	24%
17	Fulham	10	43	-	<1%	24%
18	Sunderland	5	39	-	<1%	46%
19	Coventry	9	37	-	<1%	60%
20	Crystal Palace	7	36	-	<1%	65%

End = expected points at the end of the season. Percentages = share of the 20,000 simulated seasons where it happens. Updated 08/11/2026.

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FAQ

Who will win the Premier League?

Based on our 20,000 simulations, Arsenal are favourites with a 86% chance of the title. It is not a certainty: it is the share of simulated seasons where it happens.

How is this predicted table computed?

We estimate each team's attacking and defensive strength from the season's goals and expected goals (xG), then play the 285 remaining matches 20,000 times. Updated every night.